Divisional Round Preview: How the Bengals are playing better than the Bills now

We went 5-1 last week. Let's review and get ready for next week.

Super Wild Card Weekend was much more “super” this year than last year. Four of the six games were decided by one score versus only two last season. The most disappointing thing for some fans was that the Cowboys won.

Mitch Blatt NFL and IDP Analysis @MitchBlattNFL

Wild Card Round Results: Mitch's picks went 5-1 picking winners and 3-0 on recommended picks. My average line difference was 5.8, compared to 7.9 for the market, and each of my lines was better than the market.

My picks hit. I called the Jags beating the Chargers. Five-of-six of my projected winners won. I missed the Giants.

The Cowboys proved that the talent and numbers matter more than history and narratives. The Bengals did just enough to win, but it feels difficult to evaluate them too harshly, as they were playing the same team two weeks in a row. Except for a brief period at the beginning of the fourth quarter, they were always most likely to win. The Bills also played worse than they should have. They alternated between dominance and slouching. Josh Allen threw three picks and fumbled three times, losing one.

Tweets

Mitch Blatt NFL and IDP Analysis @MitchBlattNFL

Joey Bosa helped his team blow a 27-point lead, committed egregious penalties, one of which gave JAX a 2-point conversion, and just whines about it--refuses to take responsibility and try to play smarter.

Robert Griffin III @RGIII

The key to winning in the playoffs is RUNNING THE BALL and STOPPING THE RUN. Historically, Teams have a 75% chance of winning in the playoffs when they outrush their opponent. In last year’s Wild Card round, 5 of the 6 winners out rushed their opponent.

Mitch Blatt NFL and IDP Analysis @MitchBlattNFL

The key to winning in the playoffs is SCORING POINTS and STOPPING THE OTHER TEAM FROM SCORING POINTS. Teams have a 100% chance of winning in the playoffs when they score more points than the other team. In this year's Wild Card Round, 6/6 winning teams scored more than opponent

Alfredo Brown @ThePretendGM

Khalil Herbert led all RBs in yards per attempt (5.7 YPA) David Montgomery is a free agent. There’s a good chance Herbert is the starter for the Bears in 2023.

Divisional Round Preview

The Chiefs and Eagles are the only dominant favorites this weekend. They both have great advantages over their opponent in adjusted win percentage and point differential. (Learn more about Mitch’s advanced stats.) But they both are underwhelming in terms of yards/point and yards/point allowed.

PD over expected and yards/point differential can both be used roughly as predictors of margin. In the divisional round, they were aligned; five of the six teams with better point differentials also had better yards/point margins. The only exception was the Giants. They had a much better PD number than the Vikings, while the Vikings were slightly better at turning yards into points. The team with the better PD won.

Overall for the season, PD>Expected has a 25.7% correlation to final game margin, while yards/point differential has a 17.7% correlation.

Bills vs Bengals

Let’s look in detail at the best game of the week.