Fantasy QB Matchup Grades for Week 2
Jordan Love poised for another big game; Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow expected to bounce back big.
Last week, I recommended Derek Carr as my streaming pick of the week. Carr finished with 305 yards, fifth-most for the week, and a touchdown in a win over the Titans. I also highlighted Jordan Love as a “start consideration.” Love threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns. Love has another great matchup this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
Week 2 Best QB and WR Matchups
The results are sorted by the total score for offensive team advantage (Offensive team’s QB score + WR/TE + OL - Defensive team’s DB - DB - DL). The total advantage of the three offensive positions versus their counterpart on the defense correlated most closely with Week 1 results. (Yes, DB score is included in the equation twice because it includes QB - DB + WR - DB.)
The Falcons defense is mediocre across the board. The Packers have an above-average offense across the board with high upside at the QB and WR positions. Christian Watson (hamstring) would be a big boost to their WR core if he can return. Unfortunately, he still is not practicing.
Even without him, rookie TE Luke Musgrave and rookie WR Jayden Reed both played well, and second-year WR Romeo Doubs caught two passes for two touchdowns. The Falcons did not get tested in Week 1, as they faced rookie QB Bryce Young on a Panthers team that absolutely lacked receiving skill. The Panthers finished with just 10 points. Look for Jordan Love on your league’s waiver wire, and if he’s available, you should almost certainly add him, unless you are in a very shallow league without many bench spots and already have two very good QBs.
One interesting streaming option is Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield only threw for 173 yards in week one, but he completed two touchdown passes and threw no interceptions. The strength of his matchup—against a Bears team Jordan Love succeeded against last week—lies in the Bucs’ advantage at WR and the Bears’ poor defensive line, which should give Baker time to hit open WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Positive QB Matchups
These next seven matchups are positive for each teams’ passing game unit—and five of them are specifically positive for the quarterback vs defensive back matchups. But most of them are not appealing for fantasy football purposes. After N.Y. Giants QB Daniel Jones’ terrible Week 1—and with his overall flukey-ness over most of his career—you might want to hold off on starting him until you see something positive from him. Browns QB Deshaun Watson looked pretty bad on film in Week 1, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud is playing his second career NFL game.
Only Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, and Lamar Jackson (whose rushing ability is not captured in this chart) are viable matchups here.
Poor Quality QB Matchups
A lot of the quarterbacks with poor matchups are here because they are middling quarterbacks on bad teams who you wouldn’t want to roster in the first place. There are a couple of good quarterbacks with tough(er) matchups. Here’s what I would say about them:
Tua Tagovailoa vs Patriots - You are not going to bench Tua after his 466-yard game unless he gets hurt or plays poorly for an extended period.
Justin Fields vs Bucs - Fields struggles throwing the ball against every team. You are starting him for his rushing ability.
Trevor Lawrence vs Chiefs - Jared Goff threw for 253 yards (sixth-most) against the Chiefs in Week 1, so you shouldn’t fear the Chiefs in a game with high-projected passing volume.
Russell Wilson vs Commanders - The Commanders held Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs to 132 yards on 21 completions and no TDs in Week 1. Russell Wilson is a better quarterback than Dobbs (I think), but he only had a slightly higher yards/completion figure in Week 1. Anyway, I’m benching Wilson if I have anyone better (he’s my backup on a dynasty team in which Allen and Love are my two starters, and he’s tentatively my starter over Daniel Jones on a single-QB team, although I am considering starting waiver wire add Derek Carr over him).
Josh Allen vs Dolphins - Start him, and don’t even be scared. The Jets defense is much better than the Dolphins. Even if the Dolphins have talented players on defense, their type of game plan leads to shootouts. Justin Herbert may have only thrown for 229 yards and a single TD in last week’s MIA 36-34 victory over LAC, but the Chargers ran the ball 40 times for 233 yards and three TDs. The Bills are a more passing-oriented team than the Chargers.
Matt Stafford vs 49ers - Keep benching/not rostering Stafford until he proves he’s a weekly starting candidate. If you have the space on your roster, I have no problem with you adding him. But this Week 2 matchup against the NFL’s best defense (8.35/10 in my ratings) is not the time to start him for the first time. Pittsburgh Steelers’ overrated QB Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions and was sacked twice last week against the Steelers.
The Panthers, Patriots, and Jets are the three teams that didn’t make the list. Tell me you are not starting Zach Wilson. If you want to start Mac Jones, well, that’s your choice.