Is Jackson Really Worth $50 Million a Year? Jones $40 Mil? Charting the QB Market.

Compared to QBs who made $45 million+ a year, Jackson is lacking.

The 2023 offseason is underway with new contracts for Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Derek Carr, and Jaguars backup QB C.J. Beathard. I expressed my immediate thoughts on my podcast yesterday. Give it a listen.

PFF asked, “Did the Giants overpay Daniel Jones?” Sam Monson says yes. Others say the NFL is “colluding” against Lamar Jackson because, obviously, Jackson is worth $46-$50 million a year fully-guaranteed. What does the data say?

Now that I’ve had some more time to look at previous contracts and production numbers, let’s jump into this.

Lamar Jackson has thrown for 5,124 yards over the past two seasons and ran for 1,532 yards. If you look at other QBs who gained between 6,000 and 8,000 total yards in the two seasons preceding their new contract, you have Dak Prescott in 2021, Daniel Jones this season, and Teddy Bridgewater in 2022.

Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson

Russell Wilson had just over 8,000 yards last year when he signed an overvalued extension with the Denver Broncos.

Jones’ numbers in 2021 and 2022 look pretty similar to Prescott’s in 2019 and 2020. Prescott is the better passer, but Jones adds more on the ground. And they both got contracts averaging $40 million a year.

Dak made just under half of his cash in the first year of his contract, and 78.8% of the $160 million total was guaranteed. Jones’ contract, also $160 million total, isn’t as generous; only 51.3% is guaranteed at signing, and the Giants can get out of it after two years. It averages out to $41 million a year if he only last two years. Average annual value (AAV) is an imperfect measure, but it is useful if you are comparing multiple contracts.

The historical trendline since 2018 would put both Prescott and Jones at closer to $36 million a year for the kind of production they had displayed in the two years prior to signing. But the salary cap has risen since Dak’s contract, and Jones is three years younger than Dak was when he signed.

What about Lamar Jackson?

If you compare Jackson to Jones and Prescott, it’s not obvious he deserves a contract worth $6-10 million a year more than theirs that is fully guaranteed. Both of the QBs making $40 million a year have gained about 450 more total yards than Jackson has over the past two years.

Okay, but Lamar Jackson won an MVP a couple of years ago. That’s one of his big selling points. So I went back to… …2019. Let’s include his best season and see how he stacks up!

Lamar Jackson had fewer passing yards than Jones and Prescott in the four years before both of them signed new contracts, and he has fewer passing yards than the two QBs who signed contracts similar to what he is seeking—even though Murray signed his new contract after just his third year.

Even if you believe Jackson is more valuable than Jones (which he probably is), he is not worth the fully-guaranteed $250 million over five years he is demanding. He has not produced anywhere near what Murray and Watson did. Jackson has had fewer total yards than Watson had in his first four years. Jackson (273.1) also has had fewer total yards per game than Murray (288.4). And that’s when you include the 1,000-yard rushing seasons he had in 2019 and 2020—numbers he won’t reproduce as he gets older.

Derek Carr’s Contract