Jimmy G's Value and Davante's Decline

I'm worried about Davante Adams' value this year but not for the reason you might suspect.

Jimmy Garoppolo has signed with the Las Vegas Raiders for $24.25 million each year for three years. His contract puts him just under Geno Smith's $25 million for average annual value (AAV), but Smith makes $27.5 million this year, so Jimmy G only ends up earning the Geno equivalent if he stays for longer than one year. It's approximately equal to what Jimmy has been making; he has averaged $24.2 million in earnings over the past five years.

When I add Garoppolo's new contract to my quarterback contract chart, you can see he has been producing slightly above the average of other QB's getting paid $24 million a year.

In fact, Garoppolo had ~700 more passing yards and just ~200 fewer total yards than Daniel Jones the past two years. But he, like Carr, is rightly being paid less because he is older and he has no upside. We know who he is: a capable veteran quarterback with a winning record while playing for good teams under one of the greatest offensive geniuses.

Dov Kleiman @NFL_DovKleiman

The bad pass by Jimmy Garoppolo that got George Kittle limping to the sidelines.

Davante Adams’ Prospects for 2023

Now Garoppolo joins a team coached by Josh McDaniels instead of Kyle Shanahan. Can he still play well enough to keep the Raiders offense going and make Davante Adams and Darren Waller productive?

Ian Hartitz @Ihartitz

Every Davante Adams touchdown with the Raiders

While McDaniels has not inspired confidence, I am not so worried about Davante Adams with Garoppolo under center. Adams produced with Carr. He even produced with Jarrett Stidham under center (34.3 PPR points in Week 17 and 12.3 in Week 18). Garoppolo is not a good deep ball thrower, but Carr has been washed the past couple of years, so it looks like a wash there.

Davante Adams excelled on passes of 20+ yards, scoring nine of his 15 yards on deep routes, and he did as well or better when Derek Carr was not playing.

Comp % - TD - INT (on passes of 20+ yards)

Carr - 33.8% - 11 - 4

Jimmy - 28.6% - 1 - 1

Neither Carr nor Garoppolo are great throwers of the deep ball. For the past two seasons, they both ranked towards the bottom of all starters in terms of completion percentage and PFF grade when throwing deep. Carr did let loose somewhat more often. Even if the Raiders don’t target Adams deep quite as often, Adams is so complete as a receiver he can (and has) produced from anywhere and in any kind of route.

Weekly fantasy finishes at PFF.

What is most concerning about Davante Adams is the potential that Darren Waller could be healthy all season long in 2023.

Adams ranked as the WR1 three times in 2022 between Weeks 9 and 13. Waller missed Weeks 7 through 14. Hunter Renthrow also missed Weeks 10 through 14--and made four catches in Week 8 through 9. So Adams had no competition for targets whatsoever during his hottest period of 2022.

Adams was still outstanding even when Waller was healthy. But his PPR points dropped from 22.5 per game without Waller competing for targets to 17.7 when Waller was healthy. Justin Jefferson's 22.6 points per game in Weeks 1-17 were #1. At 17.7, Adams would have been WR5

Waller has missed 14 games over the past two seasons, and his yards per game, catch rate, and touchdown numbers are all down since his career year in 2020. Davante share holders must hope that the trend continues.

Enjoy this article? Help get it in front of more people! Share it on Twitter and Facebook. Tag me on Twtitter: @MitchBlattNFL

Thai Travel Time (Premium Content)

As you may know, I am living in Thailand at the moment. I moved here last year before Kliff Kingsbury moved here. Today I was writing this article while sitting by the Ping River. Let me show you!