Mitch's Picks for NFC Win Totals (Over/Under) -- And Explaining How Over/Under Picks Work

The Eagles and 49ers could repeat.

Well, guys, I’m back from Laos. Songkran is over. Now let’s get back to football some. Before I left for Laos, I gave my picks on early AFC win props. It was my most popular post yet. So I am going to do the same thing here for the NFC—predicting how many games each team in the NFC will win.

As I am thinking and reimagining how this outlet could work, I realize I have a variety of interests, and my readers have a variety of interests. I’m sharing my travel stories with you. I’m sharing my NFL picks. And I want to share my ideas in a way everyone can understand and appreciate.

What do you think? I want this newsletter to evolve and serve the needs of as many subscribers as possible. Email me if you want to share your thoughts.

So first, I will explain briefly how to predict and bet on NFL win totals.

Bookmakers, who provide the platform for betting, put out a prop—a betting target—on how many games they expect each team to win next season. Even though the season is six month away, we know how good each team was last year. We know which of their players are free agents who might leave (and now most of those transactions have already happened), and we have some idea what positions and even what players a couple of the teams will target in the upcoming NFL Draft next week. Then you pick whether you think the team will win over or under the line the bookmakers set.

For example, the San Francisco 49ers’ line is 11.5 wins. Obviously a team can’t win half a game, so by setting ever prop win total at a number ending in a half, they ensure that there are no pushes. Every bet on these lines is either going to hit or miss. The 49ers won 13 games last year, and they still have most of their skill position players together. So I think they are going to win more than 11.5 games (i.e. 12 or more wins).

There are multiple bookmakers (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, for example), but usually on major betting propositions they will converge on the same props—so as to prevent fans from arbitraging. The 2023 win prop lines I’m using are the market lines, and they appear to be the same across all platforms. Now you don’t really need to place bets for money if you just want to have fun with this. You can make your own picks and argue with mine in the comments.

How to read Mitch’s chart

The first two columns are self-explanatory. The third column and fourth column are related. The third column is the combined winning percentage of each opponent the teams are facing in 2023. The winning percentage is based on the 2022 results, and some teams will have gotten better or worse, so it’s not perfect, but performance year over year is highly-correlated.

The teams are color coded by conference. Each of the two NFL conferences (the AFC and NFC) is made up of four four-team regional divisions. Every team in each division plays every divisional opponent twice—that’s six games—and they also play every team in one intraconference division and one interconference division. So back to the San Francisco 49ers: they are in the NFC West, and every team in the NFC West plays every team in the NFC East and AFC North this year. That’s eight games they have in common with every team in their division. So just by knowing what division a team plays in, you know their opponent in 14 of their 17 games. Hence, knowledge of the divisions they are facing in column four also gives us a good idea of how difficult their schedule is next year.

Column five “Offseason +/-” is a measure of how much the teams improved in free agency. I took the measures from

Kevin Cole

's meticulous offseason tracking. When I make and explain my picks, I’m going to have my own qualitative evals of some free agent moves, but Cole’s number is helpful to give an overview. He didn’t provide a number for the Packers because they didn’t make many moves. They are losing future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers, so that will likely hurt them.

Finally, column six shows how much each team is expected to improve or decline from their win total last year.

Team-by-Team Analysis

San Francisco 49ers

Over 11.5. The 49ers still have some of the most talented and dynamic offensive weapons, including RB Christian McCaffrey, who set the all-time record for receptions for a running back last season; tight end George Kittle; and wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. They might have a problem at quarterback, though. Brock Purdy, who shocked everyone by leading the team to an undefeated finish in the regular season after being picked last in the 2022 NFL Draft, injured his elbow in the NFC Championship game and might not be ready by Week 1. Backup QB Trey Lance was selected #3 overall in 2021 because of his athleticism, but he only played for a single season at North Dakota State and didn’t display accuracy or mechanics there. He has only played in eight games in his NFL career—too small a sample size to say anything definitively, to be sure—and he didn’t look good in them, completing less than 55% of his pass attempts.

Philadelphia Eagles

Over 10.5 wins. They are still the best team in the NFC East. Running back Miles Sanders left in free agency, but the Eagles running game has always been more about the offensive line and offensive scheme. The line remains in tact. Jalen Hurts remains behind center. With his running ability and with one of the best top-2 wide receiver units in the league in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, defenses will not be able to stop anyone who takes handoffs. As it is, Philly added RB Rashaad Penny, who was on pace for 1,176 yards last season, which would have been the sixth-most, (while playing for Seattle) before he went down with an injury in Week 5. Their potential downside is on defense. They lost multiple starters, including cornerback Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who tied for the league lead in interceptions; linebacker T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White; and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who joined the 49ers (another reason to pick them for “over”). I don’t think DT Jordan Davis, who didn’t play much in his rookie season, will match Hargrave.

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