NFL Combine RBs: Big Winners, Big(sby) Losers, and Four Sleepers to Target for Fantasy
Bijan Robinson maintained his status as the 1.01 rookie, and these four unheralded running backs could have productive fantasy seasons.
The running backs completed their drills at the NFL Scouting Combine, and Bijan Robinson hit his targets.
What are we looking for as fantasy managers at the Combine? For running backs, we want someone who will run the 40-yard dash in under 4.50 seconds, jump over 35 inches on the vertical, and jump over 10 feet in the broad jump. If they can wow in the 3-cone, that’s good, too, but almost no RBs compete in the three-cone anymore.
If a running back hits those targets (<4.50, >35, >120 in) and is drafted, he has about a 40% chance of scoring 200+ PPR points (~12/game) his rookie season. If a RB only has a fast 40-time, he only has a 20% chance of hitting.
These numbers are non-linear boxes to check. A running back won’t necessarily have a better career if he runs a 4.41 as compared with a 4.49. In fact, when it comes to late-round running backs, those who run under 4.40 have a lower success rate than those who run between 4.4 and 4.5 (likely because one who runs under 4.4 and is still drafted late has other problems). However, running under a 4.4 and getting drafted in the top three rounds is indicative of greater chances of success.
NFL teams are simply good at identifying talent. If you are drafting in fantasy, why ignore that information? If you are drafting now, you don’t know when each player will be drafted, but we do have some good ideas. We know with a high degree of confidence, for example, that Bijan Robinson will likely be drafted in the late first round and will certainly be drafted in the early first round if he falls.
Bijan had a fine day at the Combine. He ran the 40 in 4.46 seconds, jumped 37 inches on the vert, and got 124 inches, fourth-most, in the broad. He was the only early-round pick to hit all three targets.
Tank Bigsby failed bigly. He’s only 213 pounds (i.e. smaller than Bijan and Zach Charbonnet), but he still runs like his name suggests. He ran a 4.56. It’s possible for RBs who run the 40 in over 4.5 to have success, but their success rate is lower; 33.3% success rate for sub-4.5 RBs drafted in the first two rounds versus 16.7% for over-4.5 RBs.
Those slow-40 RBs who did have success—Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt—showed their athleticism in the broad jump and vert. Bigsby didn’t. His vert was 32.5 inches, and he was one of only four (out of 14) RBs not to reach 10 feet on the broad jump.
Now let's look at the historical data.
Between 2015 and 2022, there were 34 running backs drafted who participated in the 40-yard dash at the Combine. Eight of them were drafted in the first round. From a fantasy football standpoint, you wouldn’t have much success chasing just any RB drafted in the first or second rounds. But if you add Combine numbers to your analysis, you would have a high hit rate if you target early-round RBs who succeeded in multiple drills at the Combine. (If you change it to three drills, you don’t change the hit rate, because the RBs who hit the target in the vert hit it in the broad jump, too.)
Now let’s look at how the 2023 rookies did at the Combine and give them expected success rates for fantasy football.
Zach Charbonnet disappointed, running the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds, but he hit the targets for both jumps. DeWayne McBride has a hamstring injury and could not participate, but he is ranked as PFF’s RB5 and Overall #80, so he could be picked in the second or third round.
The six players listed between 40% and 45% are a mix of sleeper candidates who hit their marks and blue chips who missed. The percentages are based on the historical data in the chart, and they are approximate/fluid. I could see you putting Devon Achane ahead of Deneric Prince or Evan Hull, for example.
Northwestern’s Evan Hull had a good Combine numberswise. He was one of only two RBs to participate in the three-cone drill. He did it in 6.90 seconds—0.01 slower than Miles Sanders. Chase Brown of Illinois also did very well. He ran the fifth-fastest 40 and jumped the highest in both jumps.
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[1] Kareem Hunt (4.62) was the only success amongst 4.5+ backs with a good vertical jump. He had a vert of 36.5.
[2] No RB with these athletic numbers who was drafted in the third-round or later had a successful rookie year. A RB who was that athletic would likely be drafted early unless there was some other problem with their game.
[3] Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara, both taken in the third.
[4] Most RBs refuse to run the three-cone drill at the Combine. Those who do are usually good at it. The only three who checked these two boxes were all drafted in the first two rounds and all had productive rookie seasons. They were Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey (1st round) and Miles Sanders.