The NFL Has a New Highest-Paid Player. Is Jalen Hurts Worth It?

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is a name you're gonna be hearing more of. Here is why the NFL just made him the highest paid player in America's most profitable sport.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the most exciting (and best) players in the NFL. He slings the ball. He grew tremendously as a passer in just three years, and he makes amazing plays happen when he scrambles. I wrote about him as possible MVP candidate last season, while he was in the process of leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Is Jalen Hurts the Most Valuable Player?

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Bowl Record for QB Rushing Touch Downs! | Super Bowl LVII

Jalen Hurts best runs as an Eagle 🦅

It’s not just his athletic skills, but it’s also his instincts and that always-sought after X factor a winning QB either has or doesn’t have. He lost his starting job at Alabama to Tua Tagovailoa but then he transferred to Oklahoma and he won a Big 12 championship and earned a berth to the College Football Playoffs. He was heavily scrutinized when he was drafted in the second round as a backup to Carson Wentz, who was then thought of as an MVP candidate by some. But Wentz was playing poorly, so Hurts he took over a struggling Eagles team late in the season and instantly made them competitive.

On second- or third-and-ten, he can always rush for a first down. He keeps plays alive and reacts in an instant to put the ball in the right place for a receiver to get it. He had those traits in his rookie year, but he had not polished his passing ability. Now he has the same charismatic traits plus a high-end passing ability.

Hurts’ New Record-Setting Contract

Jalen Hurts was approaching the end of his rookie contract, and the Eagles wanted to keep him for the long term after what he’s shown he can do, so they just signed him to a contract extension that works out to $51 million a year over five more years. That makes him the highest-paid player in the NFL. Is he worth it? And is Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who is still trying to get a top-of-league deal worth more?

I made a chart of quarterback contracts at the start of free agency that displayed how much each signal caller was paid per year and how many yards (rushing plus passing) they had produced in the two years leading up to their contract.

I updated the chart with Hurts’ contract. Hurts’ production is very close to the average line, indicating he is getting paid about as much as QBs with similar production metrics to him. It is slightly on the “overpaid” side—but the NFL salary cap has increased since the previous players on this chart signed their contracts, so pay is supposed to increase with the cap.

The Eagles are paying for future production, not past production. Hurts is on the way up. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, who are near Hurts on the chart, are aging and declining. The Packers (unwisely) rushed to give Rodgers a big new contract to satisfy him and keep him in Green Bay for one more year—kind of as a career achievement award—but now that contract is making it hard for them to complete the trade of Rodgers to the New York Jets. The Broncos were desperate for a star QB after years of failure, and they traded everything for Russell Wilson, but he was a huge bust his first season in the Mile High City.

Hurts is also more valuable than other QBs because of his rushing ability. When a quarterback is a threat to gain yards on the ground as well as a running back, defenses have to put more defenders in the box up at the line of scrimmage to try to stop him. That opens up the passing game and the running back option game. There’s just too many people for defenses to cover.

The Eagles are a very run-heavy team, and Hurts could have gained more passing yards if he threw the ball more. He ranked #5 in yards per pass attempt but only #10 in total passing yards, behind QBs like Geno Smith and Jared Goff, because he threw the ball less often than Smith and Goff.

Let’s also consider that there are some quarterbacks who are still on their rookie deals, who are waiting to sign big new contract extensions, who will probably be paid more than Hurts. Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who is definitely a better passer and probably a better overall player than Hurts, will almost certainly get a bigger contract than Hurts. Chargers QB Justin Herbert probably won’t, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. So the value of Hurts’ deal looks inflated both because 1.) veteran quarterbacks with declining value have inflated statistics relative to their current value, and 2.) Hurts is the first of the class of young elite QBs to sign a new deal, and the newest deals for the players in the top tier are always the highest due to inflation.

Lamar Jackson’s Value

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been feuding with Baltimore over his contract. He reportedly wants a fully-guaranteed deal that would put him as one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league. He even turned down a deal that would have been $250 million with $200 million guaranteed. NFL teams just don’t fully guarantee contracts, but Hurts’ deal guaranteed 70% of the value, and the Ravens’ offer to Jackson reportedly guaranteed 80%.

Jackson is not as good as Jalen Hurts, either, so he shouldn’t expect to get paid more than Hurts. They both have similar rushing ability, but Jackson’s development as a passer has plateaued, and his production has declined since his MVP season in 2019.

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My full chart of QB contract research that I used to make the graph is available to premium subscribers, as is other premium data I create and share