Week 7 Fantasy and Betting Picks
Best Bets, Waiver Wire Adds, and IDP Matchup Rankings for Week 7.
Hey guys, I’m back. Like I said in last an email, I am working on a creative project, so I reevaluated my posting schedule here. I can’t produce three emails a week, as I was trying to do early on this season, but I can contain everything, including my defensive line matchup previews for IDP fantasy football, in one email. I have opened up Mitch’s Picks to premium subscriptions again and unpaused the billing cycle. Premium subscribers will get access to the full IDP matchup data. All subscribers will get access to the top 5-8 matchups each week.
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Who should win NFL Coach of the Year?
I put this poll up on Twitter, and Mike McDaniel is narrowly beating out Dan Campbell.
McDaniel designed a historically-explosive offense. The Dolphins are averaging 37.2 points per game, which would rank as the third-most in history over a full season. The only teams that scored more were the 1950 L.A. Rams and the 2013 Broncos. The 2013 Broncos, quarterbacked by Peyton Manning, set the record for passing touchdowns and passing yardage and lost the Super Bowl to the Richard Sherman-era Seahawks.
The 1950 Rams were an interesting team. Back in the day, their quarterback, Norm Van Brocklin, could make the Pro Bowl while completing 54.5% of his passes for an 18:14 TD:INT ratio. But he averaged 16.2 yards per completion, and the team averaged 14.7 yards per completion overall. They totaled 31 passing touchdowns and 28 rushing touchdowns (with ten players rushing for touchdowns, including two-way players like safety/halfback Jerry Williams and LB/HB Paul “Tank” Younger). They scored over 60 points twice and 70 points once.
By comparison, the Dolphins today complete 71.0% of their passing attempts, and lead the league with 13.7 yards per completion, a full one yard less than the ‘50 Rams. That’s how Van Brocklin could set the record with 554 yards passing on opening day of the 1951 season by averaging 20.5 yards per completion. Like the Broncos, the 1950 Rams did not win the Super Bowl the year they set the scoring record; they only won it the next year, and the Broncos won their Super Bowl two years later. So, if history means anything, the Dolphins won’t win the Super Bowl until the 2024-25 season at the earliest.
My Week 7 Betting Picks
I have the Packers over the Broncos on the money line, the Commanders (WAS -2.5) over the Giants on the spread, and the Cardinals at Seahawks game under 44.5 points. The Commanders at Giants line is now at WAS -3 on most books. I still think it’s a good bet to take WAS. -3, as opposed to -2.5, makes it more likely to draw. The line has been moving in that direction over the week because people like me saw it was a good bet. The news that Daniel Jones is probably going to miss the game again might’ve pushed it against N.Y., too, but he’s been playing so bad, I don’t think Jones or Taylor starting makes a difference.
Read my article at RotoBaller to see my full explanations for my picks: Week 7 Best Bets
IDP Streamers for Week 7
The waiver wire period has already passed, but if you need last minute streamers, take a look: IDP Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 7. My top adds are: DBs Darious Williams and Julius Brents and LB Blake Cashman.
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Week 7 IDP Matchup Rankings
Best LB Matchups
Read my article at Fantasy Six Pack:
Some excerpts: Week 7 IDP Matchups
Vikings LBs vs 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are rushing the ball an average of 33.0 times per game, the third-most in the NFL. Vikings linebacker Jordan Hicks excels at run defense. He has a 76.9 run-defense grade from PFF, and he is credited with 24 solo tackles and 10 assists on running plays.
Colts LBs vs Browns
The Browns are tied with the 49ers for third in running plays per game. Last week, they called 31 designed runs for their half backs. They will want to lean on the run again this week if starting quarterback DeShaun Watson misses another game.
Best DB Matchups
Eagles DBs vs Dolphins QB + WRs
The Miami Dolphins complete an average of 23.7 passes per game. That means there are just under 20 opportunities for Fins' opponents to make tackles on passing plays. For the Eagles, safety Reed Blankenship and cornerback Darius Slay are the two best tacklers on passing plays.
49ers DBs vs Vikings QB + WRs
The 49ers will likely be leading the mediocre Vikings all game long, and the Vikings will have to lean on the pass. That is especially true because of how terrible the Vikings' rushing offense has been this year. That led to the Vikings throwing the ball an average of 39.2 times per game, the third-most in the league.
Best DL Matchups and Chart
The five best defensive line matchups likely to produce multiple sacks are: the Commanders DL vs the Giants OL, the Browns DL vs the Colts, the Giants DL vs the Commanders (that’s going to be an ugly game all around), the Eagles DL vs the Dolphins, and the 49ers DL vs the Vikings.
These rankings combine my positional strength evaluations with the 2023 statistics on pressure rate. The full rankings are available for premium subscribers.
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