Wild Card Round Picks, Super Bowl Probabilities, and Best Fantasy Picks for Playoff Challenge

I lay out how to put those strategies to work and include optimal lineups.

Earlier this week, I explained the basic strategies to win the NFL.com Playoff Challenge. Now, for paid subscribers, I will lay out how to put those strategies to work and include optimal lineups.

First, I will give my Wild Card Round picks to all subscribers.

The power ratings on which I base my Wild Card Round picks show the Bills and 49ers are significantly better than the other teams in the playoffs. A second tier includes the Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Eagles—with the Bengals comfortably at the top of that tier. Each of the top six teams has at least an 8.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl. No other team is a real Super Bowl contender.

Notes on Statistics

Games Overperforming: How many games did the team beat their opponent by a higher margin than that by which their opponent wins or loses on average?

Yards/Point: How many yards does it take for a team to score a point? Fewer yards per point is better. That means a team has a strong and efficient offense that limits giveaways.

Yards/Point Allowed: Same concept as yards/point but now on defense. A higher yards/point allowed indicates a better defense.

Yards/Point Allowed - Yards/Point Scored: A higher score indicates the combined strength of a team’s offense and defense.

Record vs Good Teams: The team’s record against opponents with a positive adjusted point differential.

Adjusted Margin vs Expected: Similar to Games Overperforming stat, but an average rather than a count measure. On average, does this team win by a larger or smaller margin than would be expected based on their opponents?

See my page explaining these exclusive statistics for a more detailed breakdown.

So let’s take a look at the Wild Card picks.

The top-tier teams are just better than their opponents across the board. The Bills and Seahawks are excelling on offense and defense. The 49ers are top five in offensive EPA/play, EPA/pass, defensive EPA/play, defensive EPA/pass, and defensive EPA/rush. The Bills are top five in offensive EPA/play but poor at rushing and average on defense. The Dolphins are going to be starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback, as Tua Tagovailoa still has not been cleared after the concussion he suffered in Week 16 against the Packers.

While I give the Bills an 80% chance of beating the Dolphins, I think the Dolphins will most likely stay within 13. The results of their two regular season games were a two-point Dolphins win and a three-point Fins loss. Tua played in both games, and the home team won each game. Buffalo is home this time. Skylar, a rookie from Kansas State (seventh round), has a 1-1 record in games he has started, including last week’s 11-6 win over the Jets.

Jags will “upset” the Chargers

I hate calling everything an upset when we know any team can win any week, and there are many games where we expect any team could win. Technically the Jags are the higher seed, having won the worst division in football, but the Chargers are the favorite on the books.

However, the Jaguars already beat the Chargers 38-10 in LA. Justin Herbert’s ribs were hurt then, which clearly limited him, and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missed the game. Now Herbert is recovered, and Allen is back, but Williams hurt his back in Week 18 and hasn't practiced all week.

Trevor Lawrence is playing as well as Herbert; the two have nearly equal PFF ratings, yards/attempt figures, and TD:INT ratios. The Jags are superior in almost all the stats I have compiled, and my power rating measure has about a 25% correlation with game margins this season.

The Bucs won’t magically become the 2021 Bucs

A lot of people think: “Brady in the playoffs beats the Cowboys in the playoffs.” Either side of that equation calls for an upset. You have a QB who could come alive and beat anyone when it counts against a team that will find a way to lose to anyone when it counts.

I won’t try to dissuade you from believing such a compelling narrative. But the Cowboys are the far superior team. The Cowboys are better than they have been in past seasons, and the Bucs are much worse than they were in any of Brady’s previous seasons. Brady himself has had his worst PFF grade since 2013 (which makes him above average but not elite).

FiveThirtyEight’s ELO model shows these Cowboys are better than any Cowboys team since before 2017.

The Vegas lines in the other three games are too close to my predicted margins to suggest taking any action.

Super Bowl Probabilities and Best Fantasy Picks for Playoff Challenge

As promised, I will reveal the best lineup choices for the NFL.com Playoff Challenge to paid subscribers. If you have not already, become a paid subscriber now to see this exclusive content and help me continue publishing this blog/newsletter!